Every spring, farmers across the U.S. Midwest spread a pink, salty mineral on their fields. Most of them never think about where the farm product came from.
The answer, very often, is a mine deep beneath the Saskatchewan prairie. This dependence has become one of the most interesting stories in the Canada-U.S. trade war.
Washington and Ottawa have slapped tariffs on steel, dairy, and farm equipment. Notably, potash has been left untouched. Here’s what it could mean for Nutrien (TSX: NTR) stock investors in September 2026.
Why potash gives Canada an edge among top TSX stocks
Saskatchewan sits on the world’s largest potash reserves. Canada supplies roughly 85% of the potash the U.S. imports, and Saskatchewan alone accounts for more than 86% of Canada’s shipments south of the border, according to industry data cited by BNN Bloomberg.
Put simply, if a U.S. farmer buys imported potash, about four out of every five tonnes likely came from Canada, and this dependence is difficult to replace.
Russia and Belarus, the other potash giants, face sanctions tied to the war in Ukraine, while smaller producers in Israel, Jordan, and Germany lack the scale. Moreover, building new U.S. mines from scratch could take a decade or more.
These factors make Nutrien a top stock to add to your watchlist.
What Nutrien’s latest quarter says about this top TSX stock
On its August 6 earnings call, Nutrien reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of US$2.4 billion. Potash accounted for US$658 million of total Q2 EBITDA, driven by record volumes over the last six months.
Management raised the bottom of its 2026 potash sales guidance. The new range is 14.2 million to 14.8 million tonnes. Canpotex, the export company Nutrien shares with Mosaic, is fully booked for the third quarter.
Nutrien is targeting cash costs below US$60 per tonne, as it aims to benefit from automation. In the first half of 2026, more than 50% of the ore mined was tied to automated equipment, helping reduce operating costs.
A revealing moment occurred when an analyst asked about long-term logistics. CEO Ken Seitz said most future growth will come from overseas markets, and that Nutrien is exploring a new export terminal at Longview, Washington.
“We don’t like all volumes going through one location. So we’d like to diversify that,” Seitz said. “Put that whole picture together, and we don’t see impediments to our continued growth in potash production as we serve our customers globally.”
A company increasing sales in emerging markets such as Brazil and Asia provides diversification and lowers customer concentration risk.
Risks to weigh before buying TSX stocks tied to potash
The tariff exemption for potash could disappear if midterm politics heat up in the U.S. An aggressive Canadian stance could backfire, too, as restricting exports would squeeze Nutrien before it hurt Washington.
Finally, new supply is coming. Jansen and other expansions will add cheap tonnes over time, which could weigh on prices.
Potash demand is healthy, given that Nutrien expects global shipments of 74 million to 77 million tonnes this year. The company runs efficient mines, generates strong cash, and pays a steady dividend.
Valued at a market cap of $48.5 billion, Nutrien is a Canada-based commodity giant. Analysts forecast adjusted earnings per share to expand from US$4.56 in 2025 to US$5.06 in 2027. Down 29% from all-time highs, the TSX dividend stock offers a forward yield of over 3% next year.
If the potash producer is priced at 11 times forward earnings, it could trade around US$55 at the end of 2026, below the current price of US$72. However, Bay Street remains bullish and expects the Canadian dividend stock to surge 7% over the next 12 months, given consensus price targets.